OPEC+ is expected to approve another increase in oil production targets when eight key member countries meet on August 2, as the alliance seeks to reassure global markets following Brent crude's return above the $100 per barrel mark amid escalating supply concerns.
According to a Reuters report, the coalition's leading producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are expected to raise their combined September production target by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd). The planned increase would match the production target adjustments announced for June, July and August as OPEC+ continues to unwind its voluntary output cuts.
The anticipated decision comes despite a widening gap between official production targets and actual crude output. OPEC data showed the group produced 36.28 million bpd in June, well below the nearly 43 million bpd recorded before the Iran conflict disrupted oil exports across the Gulf earlier this year.
Persistent security challenges have continued to limit exports from major producers. Repeated disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with renewed attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, have prevented several member countries from increasing exports in line with their higher production quotas.
Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel after fresh attacks by Houthi militants on Saudi-linked oil tankers heightened concerns over the security of global energy supply routes. The attacks have intensified pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping corridor that Saudi Arabia increasingly relied on after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz became more volatile.
If endorsed at the August meeting, the September production increase would complete the reversal of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cuts introduced by OPEC+ in 2023, following adjustments made after the United Arab Emirates exited the organisation earlier this year. Reuters estimates that the participating producers will have restored approximately 1.15 million bpd of production quotas since April.
Several OPEC+ members, however, continue to face country-specific operational constraints. Iraq remains hampered by export bottlenecks, Kazakhstan has reduced output following drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea export terminal, while Russia is contending with refinery disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Although Saudi Arabia maintains significant spare production capacity, increasing threats to regional oil infrastructure continue to complicate efforts to expand exports. Analysts say the latest production target increase reflects OPEC+'s determination to demonstrate its ability to replace lost barrels once export routes stabilise, while signalling confidence in the group's capacity to respond to future supply disruptions.
The expected production boost highlights OPEC+'s ongoing effort to balance market stability with geopolitical uncertainty, as producers navigate supply chain disruptions and heightened security risks that continue to shape the global oil market.