Nigeria is gearing up to increase its crude oil production, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) signalling a possible rise of 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the coming months. The move, according to Group CEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari, could help the country edge closer to its 2026 target of 1.8 million bpd, reinforcing its role in a global market shaken by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Speaking with Reuters at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Ojulari noted, “We are building that capacity. We are not like Saudi Arabia, but we can contribute.” The planned increase, he added, is expected to cushion the impact of supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, while creating new opportunities for Nigeria to capitalise on rising global oil demand.
Despite Nigeria’s status as Africa’s top oil producer, production has struggled to meet expectations. OPEC data shows that output fell to 1.31 million bpd in February 2026, down from 1.459 million bpd in January. The Federal Government had initially budgeted for 2.6 million bpd for 2026 but later adopted the more conservative 1.8 million bpd target a reflection of the recurring gap between ambition and reality in the sector.
To address these challenges, NNPCL has overhauled its operations following a comprehensive portfolio review in 2025. The company has since focused on improving project execution, reducing delays, and enforcing strict budgetary discipline on capital projects. Additionally, NNPCL has launched a bid process to sell stakes in some of its oil and gas assets, aiming to attract fresh investment and streamline its operations.
Owning assets both independently and in partnership with international oil majors such as Shell, Chevron, Eni, and TotalEnergies, NNPCL is positioning itself for sustainable growth while boosting domestic refining and production capacity. With a target of at least $30 billion in investment by 2030, the company is demonstrating a proactive approach to tackling structural challenges and enhancing Nigeria’s influence in the global oil market.
As global crude prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, Nigeria’s measured production increase could not only strengthen the country’s revenue streams but also assert its strategic relevance in an increasingly volatile energy landscape.