Nigeria's downstream petroleum market witnessed another volatile trading week as international crude prices briefly surged above the US$100 per barrel mark for the first time in months although not for long, domestic depot prices reacted to higher replacement costs following Dangote Refinery's resumption of naira-denominated sales at significantly higher gantry prices. The week opened with growing concerns across the global oil market after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude sharply higher. During the week, the international benchmark climbed by almost 10 per cent within 24 hours, eventually breaking through the psychologically important US$100 per barrel level before easing slightly. At the close of the review period, Brent was trading around US$96 per barrel, leaving marketers cautious over replacement costs.
For Nigeria's downstream market, however, the most influential development came from Dangote Refinery. After suspending local sales, the refinery resumed naira-denominated PMS loading while simultaneously increasing its PMS gantry price from ₦1,075 per litre to ₦1,215 per litre, representing a 13.02 per cent increase (₦140). The refinery also resumed and raised its Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) gantry price from ₦1,500 per litre to ₦1,650 per litre, establishing a new benchmark for diesel pricing across the country. The combined effect of higher international crude prices and Dangote's revised ex-depot pricing immediately filtered through the domestic supply chain. Since crude oil accounts for roughly 70–80 per cent of refined petroleum production costs, whether through local refining or product imports, marketers adjusted depot prices to reflect higher replacement values and anticipated future cargo costs.
Although Brent crude retreated marginally towards the end of the week, depot prices remained elevated because marketers price products based on replacement cost rather than daily spot crude movements. Industry operators also continued to monitor developments surrounding the Federal Government's naira-for-crude policy, which remains critical to domestic fuel pricing.
LAGOS DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Aiteo: ₦1,250 → ₦1,220 (-₦30)
Nipco: ₦1,250 → ₦1,222 (-₦28)
Emadeb: ₦1,250 → ₦1,228 (-₦22)
Pinnacle: ₦1,250 → ₦1,222 (-₦28)
Gulf Treasure: ₦1,250 → ₦1,222 (-₦28)
T.Time: ₦1,250 → ₦1,220 (-₦30)
Although Dangote Refinery increased its official PMS gantry price to ₦1,215 per litre, Lagos recorded a relatively stable trading pattern among independent depots during the week. Most marketers maintained offers within the ₦1,220–₦1,228 per litre range, reflecting improved product availability following Dangote's return to naira sales while also responding to increased competition among marketers. The modest reductions recorded by several depots suggest that supply improved despite higher refinery pricing, preventing more aggressive price increases across the Lagos market.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
African Terminal: ₦1,590 → ₦1,650 (+₦60)
Duport: ₦1,590 → ₦1,650 (+₦60)
Ibachem: ₦1,590 → ₦1,650 (+₦60)
Integrated: ₦1,590 → ₦1,650 (+₦60)
Menj: ₦1,498 → ₦1,650 (+₦152)
Diesel prices in Lagos strengthened considerably after Dangote Refinery increased its AGO gantry price from ₦1,500 to ₦1,650 per litre. The refinery's adjustment effectively reset the market benchmark, prompting marketers to review replacement costs. Menj recorded the largest weekly increase of ₦152 per litre, while African Terminal, Duport, Ibachem and Integrated all closed the week at ₦1,650 per litre, underscoring the strong influence of Dangote's pricing on the diesel market.
WARRI DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Rain Oil: ₦1,270 → ₦1,273 (+₦3)
Matrix: ₦1,260 → ₦1,270 (+₦10)
Optima: ₦1,260 → ₦1,270 (+₦10)
Warri maintained relatively stable petrol prices despite the week's international volatility. With most depots recording increases of between ₦3 and ₦10 per litre, the market appeared sufficiently supplied, limiting the extent of upward adjustments even after Dangote's revised gantry pricing.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
Nipco: ₦1,680 → ₦1,695 (+₦15)
Prudent: ₦1,600 → ₦1,705 (+₦105)
A.Y.M Shafa: ₦1,680 → ₦1,720 (+₦40)
Diesel prices in Warri responded more aggressively than petrol. Prudent posted the largest increase of ₦105 per litre, while A.Y.M Shafa and Nipco also adjusted upwards as marketers priced products against higher refinery replacement costs.
PORT HARCOURT DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Masters: ₦1,265 → ₦1,275 (+₦10)
Matrix: ₦1,270 → ₦1,270 (No Change)
Liquid Bulk: ₦1,268 → ₦1,270 (+₦2)
Port Harcourt experienced minimal movements in PMS pricing during the review period. Matrix maintained its opening price throughout the week, while Masters and Liquid Bulk posted only marginal increases, indicating relatively balanced supply conditions despite the broader market adjustments.
PORT HARCOURT DEPOTS
AGO (Monday – Thursday Movement)
Sigmund: ₦1,615 → ₦1,750 (+₦135)
Matrix: ₦1,720 → ₦1,750 (+₦30)
Port Harcourt recorded one of the strongest diesel rallies during the review period as replacement costs accelerated following Dangote Refinery's increase in AGO gantry prices and Brent crude's surge above US$100 per barrel. Sigmund posted the sharpest increase, adding ₦135 per litre between Monday and Thursday, while Matrix advanced by ₦30 per litre. The upward adjustments reflected marketers' efforts to align diesel prices with higher refinery pricing and anticipated replacement costs as international crude markets remained volatile.
CALABAR DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Hong Petroleum: ₦1,270 → ₦1,255 (-₦15)
Calabar remained relatively stable throughout the review period despite the broader nationwide market rally. Hong Petroleum, the only depot with comparable opening and closing prices, reduced its PMS price by ₦15 per litre. The slight decline suggests that improved product availability and competitive pricing moderated the impact of higher crude prices and Dangote Refinery's revised gantry rates on the Calabar market.
Market Outlook
Attention now shifts to developments in the international crude market after Brent's brief move above US$100 per barrel, a level that traditionally exerts significant pressure on refinery feedstock costs and imported fuel pricing. Although prices eased slightly towards the end of the week to US$96, sustained geopolitical tensions continue to pose upside risks to crude.
Domestically, Dangote Refinery's resumption of sales in Naira and revised gantry prices for PMS and AGO have effectively established new pricing benchmarks for marketers. Unless Brent crude records a sustained decline or the Federal Government expands crude supply under the naira-for-crude arrangement, depot prices are expected to remain firm in the coming week, with marketers continuing to price products based on replacement costs rather than short-term fluctuations in international oil prices.